• FxWirePro: currency market weekly outlook

    Source: FxWire Pro - Technicals / 16 Sep 2019 02:36:20   America/New_York

    Previous Week

     

    US dollar was one of the worst performers previous week and lost more than 100 pips from high 99.10 especially EURUSD shown a massive recovery of more than 150 pips from bottom 1.09250 despite ECB monetary policy easing. The central bank cuts deposit rates by 10bps to -0.50% and introduced a bond purchase program by 20bn euros. But markets expect an aggressive move from ECB which has supported Euro at lower levels. US dollar index hits a low of 98.03 and is currently trading around 98.14.

     

    US CPI came at 1.7% y/y compared to forecast of 1.8% y/y and retail sales rose 0.4% m/m compared to decline -0.8% previous month and the jump was mainly due to spike in auto sales.

    The precious metal is consolidating in a narrow range between $1480 and $1528 for the past two weeks. The slight easing of US-China trade tension and jump in bond yield is putting pressure on yellow metal at higher levels. It is currently trading around $1506.

    The Brent crude oil prices exploded nearly 20% for the first time since 28 years after an attack on Saudi Arabia's Aramco facility. It has halted more than 50% of Saudi oil exports and 5% of the world's daily production.  

     

    US 10 year bond yield shown a good recovery of more than 30% after hitting a 3-year low of 1.44%. It is currently trading at 1.898%. The yield curve inversion between US 10 year and 2-year has gone and spread widened to 8 bps.

     

    Weekly Technical:

     

    EURUSD:

     

    Major trend reversal level- 1.1125

     

    Near term support- 1.1050/1.100

     

    Near term resistance – 1.1125/1.11750

     

     

    USDJPY:

     

    Major trend reversal level- 108.35

     

    Near term support- 107.20/106.60

     

    Near term resistance – 108.35/109.30

     

    USDCHF

     

    Major trend reversal level- 0.9955

     

    Near term support- 0.9850/0.9770

     

    Near term resistance – 0.9955/1.000

     

    USDCAD

     

    Major trend reversal level- 1.3380

     

    Near term support- 1.3300/1.3380

     

    Near term resistance – 1.3180/1.3135

     

    Gold

    Major trend reversal level- $1480

     

    Near term support- $1480/$1460

     

    Near term resistance – $1525/$1555

     

    WTI Crude

    Major trend reversal level- $63.50

     

    Near term support- $58.10/$56.08

     

    Near term resistance – $60.50/$63.50

     

    Major Economic events for the week

     

    Fed policy meeting - Wednesday (6 PM GMT)

     

    Canadian CPI - Wednesday (12:30 PM GMT)

     

    Swiss National Bank Monetary policy assessment  -Thursday (11 AM GMT)

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