• FxWirePro: WTI Crude price analysis – premature bulls pop-up before rising channel support, major trend drifts back below 50% fibos on ob momentum

    Source: FxWire Pro - Technicals / 23 Jul 2018 09:45:48   America/New_York

    The crude prices surged amid a grumpy exchange between the U.S. and Iranian leaders that underline threats about the potential for disruptions to output in the Middle East, that have cushioned WTI futures as David Trump lashed out with the tweet on Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Sunday night.

    For WTI crude oil prices, is this really a bottom? After testing supports at $67.08 levels, the crude bulls have carried on further upswings today as well after last weekend’s bullish sentiments.

    However, please be noted that the minor trend of this commodity price has been spiking through rising channel pattern, the interim bulls resume before channel support (refer daily chart).

    Whereas both leading as well as lagging indicators still signal weakness on this timeframe as the current prices restrained below 21DMA with bearish crossovers.

    We reckon that the trend indicators (DMA and MACD) show bearish crossovers indicate downswings to prolong a bit and take channel support to bounce back again.

    While the bullish phase in the major trend breaks symmetric triangle resistance. For now, the major trend seems to be edgy at 50% Fibonacci levels (refer monthly chart) and bears resume on shooting star formation, both leading oscillators on this timeframe signal overbought pressures.

    On intraday trading perspective, at spot reference: $68.82, one can buy crude oil for target upto $69.35-69.40 with stop loss $68.70 (i.e. 7DMA).

    Hence, on hedging grounds, contemplating the above factors, we advocate longs in WTI futures contracts on the NYME, for September delivery with a view of arresting further bullish risks upto $74.54 a barrel.

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